Aegean Exporters' Associations to Expand Export Target Through Green Production

Aegean exporters set 15 billion dollar export target for 2021 with green production Jak Eskinazi, Coordinator President of Aegean Exporters Associations, stated that following the discovery of a vaccine for covid-19, optimistic scenarios have come into focus for 2021, they are prepared to leave 2020 behind with 13 billion dollars in exports, and they have set a 15 billion dollar export target for 2021 by focusing on green production. Speaking at the Joint Meeting of the Aegean Exporters Associations Boards of Management, Eskinazi noted that in 2020, which they declared as the Year of Sustainability, they implemented projects with the goal of conducting exports with a smaller carbon footprint. Eskinazi stated, "In our published sustainability manifesto, we operated under the slogan 'Sustainable production and sustainable exports for a sustainable world.' Our Sustainability Working Group continued its work throughout 2020. We became the first exporter association in Turkey to hold a Zero Waste Certificate."   Pointing out that the entire world fell short of its economic targets in 2020 due to the covid-19 virus, Eskinazi said, "A 4% contraction is expected in the global economy. Turkey, in the most optimistic scenario, could close 2020 with 0.3% growth. Although the environment is unfavorable, as exporters we did not lose hope. During a period when physical fairs, sectoral trade missions and travel were cancelled; through our virtual fairs and virtual trade missions, we concluded many new business partnerships. We organized Shoedex2020 Shoe and Accessories Fair, Turkey's first virtual fair. Subsequently, we held 'The Fource 2020,' the country's first virtual food fair. Despite all difficulties, in 2020, with 8,000 member exporters of the Aegean Exporters Associations, we achieved 13 billion dollars in exports to 216 countries. The discovery and implementation of the covid-19 vaccine is increasing our hopes regarding 2021. We hope that with the vaccine's effect, the covid-19 virus will be brought under control and economic indicators will improve in a way that brings humanity joy," he said.   "As the Aegean Exporters Associations, we will continue producing and exporting in 2021 with over 8,000 member exporters as we have done for 82 years," Eskinazi said, continuing: "We will work with all our strength to reach the 15 billion dollar export target that we set for 2020 but had to postpone due to the pandemic in 2021. To reach our 2021 targets, digitalization in marketing our export products, logistics, R&D, innovation and design will be among the areas we will focus on.

The RCEP agreement formed by 15 countries with the highest development potential, with a combined population of 2.2 billion, could be a major opportunity for us. With China being one of the parties to this agreement, we are continuing our efforts to work with our Trade Ministry, Exporter Associations and the logistics sector to facilitate access to target markets, support logistics centers that will enable growth in existing markets, and ensure that all our products, particularly dried fruits, wine, leather and textiles, appear on e-commerce platforms such as JD and T-Mall in the Chinese market, which is among the leading countries in global e-commerce use. We will share good news on this matter shortly.

Turn towards green production

Economist Dr. Can Fuat Gürlesel, who gave a presentation to the Aegean Exporters Associations Board of Management members on "2020 assessment, 2021 outlook," stated that there was an expectation of 12% contraction in world merchandise trade due to the covid-19 virus, the world economy recovered faster than expected, and the contraction in world merchandise trade in 2020 fell to 7%. Providing information that world merchandise trade was 18 trillion 35 billion dollars in 2019, Gürlesel stated, "World merchandise trade will remain around 17 trillion dollars in 2020. To stand out in exports from 2021 onwards, turn towards green production," he called. Gürlesel warned that the carbon tax expected to be implemented in 2022 for exports to Europe would also come to the agenda in 2022 for exports to the USA.

Boom in import demand could occur from the second quarter of 2021

Discussing two scenarios for 2021—an optimistic and a pessimistic one—based on whether the Covid-19 virus vaccine is successful, Dr. Gürlesel said, "There is an optimistic scenario for 2021. An optimistic scenario that foresees the vaccine beginning to be administered globally from the start of 2021 and the outbreak being brought under control by the end of 2021. We will see the result of this in field implementation. The authority that approved the vaccines in the USA forecasts that European and Western markets could achieve 60-70% immunity from the second quarter of 2021 onwards. Accordingly, expectations in the 2021 world economy are being shaped. If this materializes, there would be some contraction in the first quarter of 2021, but rapid recovery is expected in the other quarters. From the second quarter of 2021 onwards, there will be a boom in import demand. Recovery projections exist. The OECD, in its 1 December forecast, believes the world economy will reach 2019 levels from the third quarter of 2021 onwards. A 4.5-5% growth is expected. The world average in the third quarter, and the USA in the fourth quarter, will return to 2019 levels. China and emerging markets will be the drivers. Recovery in the eurozone could be pushed to 2022." Finding that "agricultural products are less affected by the suppressive effects of the pandemic," Gürlesel provided information that world agricultural product trade, which was 3 trillion 313 billion dollars in 2019, would end 2020 with only a 50 billion dollar contraction.

According to optimistic expectations, world merchandise trade will grow 8% in 2021

Mentioning that according to the optimistic scenario there is an expectation of 8% growth in world merchandise trade in 2021, Dr. Gürlesel assessed that world merchandise trade, which will leave 2020 behind at 17 trillion dollars, will rise to 18 trillion 450 billion dollars.

Economist Dr. Can Fuat Gürlesel, sharing information that classifications are being made globally between countries with sufficient vaccine stocks and those with insufficient stocks, continued: "Western countries will complete vaccinations in the first two quarters of 2021 and gain immunity. In others, risk will emerge. In 2021, a distinction between vaccinated and unvaccinated will come to the agenda. European and Western countries could close their borders to countries that have not completed the vaccination process. Failure of the vaccine would bring contraction in economic activities. If we fail with the vaccine, growth in world merchandise trade will be limited to 2%. This could also happen due to base effect."

Recalling that in 2020, world trade had 2.44 trillion dollars worth of product groups under protection measures due to protectionist measures initiated by US President Donald Trump, Gürlesel stated that incoming US President Biden is expected to convert trade wars into diplomacy, and that this process is expected to have positive effects on exports. Sharing that he holds optimistic expectations for 2021 if Turkey carries out reforms in the areas of economy, law and democracy, Dr. Can Fuat Gürlesel summarized his 2021 forecasts as follows: "Turkey's economic growth 3-3.5%, Central Bank policy rate by year-end 15%, TL-Dollar rate at 2021 average 8.50 TL, at end of 2021 9 TL. CPI 10%, TL credit rate 18%. Current Account Deficit/GDP 1.5%, Budget deficit/GDP 3% 2021 exports 190 billion dollars"